Voting on the referendum will continue until January 15, 2011 and the results are scheduled to be announced in early February. Many observers believe that the referendum will pass. According to John Campbell and Ralph Bunche of the Council on Foreign Relations (The Future of Sudan, January 10, 2011), “the margin of votes favoring independence will be so huge there will be little doubt as to the intention of the southern Sudanese.”
A History of Violence
Sudan is the largest nation in Africa and has a long history of violence as conflicts between the Arab/Muslim dominated north and the Christian south have exacerbated the nation’s lingering poverty; although the south has significant oil reserves as well as other precious minerals needed to fuel the global economy.
Meanwhile, the CFR writers reported that there has been continued violence between Khartoum soldiers and southern civilians as the voting proceeded; however, Sudan’s president, Omar al-Bashir - who has been indicted as a war criminal, said that he will “abide by the results.”
The twenty-year civil war that killed as many as 2 million Sudanese people - most of whom were southerners, was brought to a halt in 2005 with the internationally brokered Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and south Sudan has enjoyed a semi-autonomous status since then. On behalf of the United States, former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice played a key role in the peace negotiations, and a successful referendum will be viewed by some as a “victory” for the Obama administration.
According to the CFR report, south Sudan has a formalized government located in the province of Juba that is comprised of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) the group that led the fight for the south during the civil war.
Looking Ahead
While the electoral process is being internationally monitored there are many underlying issues still to be resolved centered on the division of oil revenues and the management of ethnic, religious and economic boundaries, particularly in the oil-rich border-line province of Abyei where conflicts remain between the mostly Muslim nomadic pastoralists or the “Messira”, and predominantly Christian farmers, the “Ngok Dinka.”
In this regard, the CFR report states that the province has been divided by the International Tribunal at The Hague, but al-Bashir has not accepted its judgment and some southern politicians believe that the province should become part of southern Sudan.
In addition to establishing clear boundaries and oil revenue sharing, there are other internal conflicts that cloud the horizon. Prior to the secession referendum, an array of northern opposition parties to al-Bashir’s National Congress accused him of failing to maintain national unity. More importantly, “international Muslim opinion will also impact Khartoum’s response to south Sudan’s secession,” according to the CFR.
These issues will require the Obama Administration to continue to play a role in managing “potential flashpoints” that could undermine the progress that has been made since the CPA was signed. The greatest immediate concern is that more than one hundred thousand southerners who have been living in the north are heading back to their new homeland and the international community must be prepared to assist the Juba government since it is ill-equipped to the provide for the refugees needs for food, water and shelter.
An Election and a Beginning
President Obama addressed the secession of south Sudan in an Op-Ed published by The New York Times on January 8, 2011 (In Sudan, an Election and a Beginning) where the president opined that the referendum will have consequences for Sudan and the world.
“A successful vote will be cause for celebration and an inspiring step forward in Africa’s long journey toward democracy and justice,” he said. “Still, lasting peace in Sudan will demand far more than a credible referendum.”
Obama’s piece included an array of necessary conditions for a successful outcome of the referendum, including but not limited to full implementation of the CPA, resolution of border disputes and solving the status of the Abyei province. Most importantly, in order to assist the Sudanese people realize a lasting peace, he intimated that the US is prepared to lift economic sanctions and remove Sudan from the list of states that sponsor terrorism.
In the final analysis, the president also asserted that lasting peace in Sudan is contingent upon peace in the western Sudan region of Darfur and more importantly that those responsible for the genocide must be brought to justice. But for the first time in fifty years, there is hope for Sudan.
Kyle Colona - Kyle Colona is a freelance writer from the New York area with an extensive background in legal and regulatory affairs.
