After a series of tough primary and caucus contests so far, an array of opinion polls indicate the former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney is still considered to be most likely to win the nomination; however, he has not been able to close the deal or win any state by a convincing majority and the dark horse from Pennsylvania has hit an unexpected stride
GOP Candidates
Meanwhile, the other candidates have yet to throw in the towel for different reasons. In particular, Newt Gingrich has tried to position himself as the heir to Ronald Reagan’s conservative legacy, but Santorum’s sweep in the Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri caucuses has triggered a surge in national polling that has temporarily changed the battle field even though Mr. Romney still holds a commanding lead in the delegate count at 106.
As for Ron Paul, the Texan maverick was a no show at Friday’s CPAC convention (where he was the winner of the 2010 straw poll) and he appears destined for a speaking slot at the Republican Convention in Tampa. Meanwhile Mr. Gingrich is fading fast and his primary financial backer has pulled the plug. But the question is still a matter of whether any of these candidates has enough broad-based support.
Mr. Romney has thus far been unable of convincing conservatives, TEA party affiliates and skeptical moderates that remain uncommitted. And his continued verbal gaffes, “I’m not concerned about the very poor,” or “corporations are people,” have not served him well and will be used against him in the national election.
At the end of the day, Mr. Romney speaks the language of a businessman, not a politician, and President Obama, whose smooth oratorical skills won over the electorate in 2008, leads Romney in head-to-head matchups by 5% (47% to 42%).
While some analysts contend that the fiscal policies and legislative initiatives of the Obama administration have prolonged the recession (in particular the 2009 $787 billion stimulus package, the Affordable Health Care Act, and the Dodd-Frank financial reform measure), his approval ratings has started to improve. In short, defeating an incumbent president is a steep hill to climb, and the economic recovery appears to be ramping up.
Nevertheless, it is still early in the “silly” season of the 2012 presidential election as only 2% of the GOP delegates have cast their ballots, and the party establishment will not coalesce around Mr. Romney until he makes a solid push heading into the March 6th super Tuesday contests. In the final analysis, however, a tough nominating process is the best thing for democratic principles and will only serve to make for a stronger competitor in the national election.
Sources
Santorum Rewrites the Script, Republican Candidates.org, February 8, 2011
Kyle Colona - Kyle Colona is a freelance writer from the New York area with an extensive background in legal and regulatory affairs.
